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Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

The uphill battle consumers are struggling to win

By Zhu Qiwen (China Daily) Updated: 2016-03-26 07:57

The bright picture a recent McKinsey report painted about the rise of modern Chinese consumers is indeed tempting for businesses at home and abroad. The rewards must be substantial for those who get it right with the swelling consumer group, which has so far looked surprisingly confident.

But this is not the time to take China's consumer growth for granted, especially because economic headwinds remain strong. Tons of tasks need to be done before Chinese consumers can survive and thrive in the ongoing transformation of the country's economy. For policymakers, the most urgent tasks include helping consumers cope with the challenges of slowing income growth and building a truly consumer-friendly environment.

One of the most eye-catching facts of McKinsey's 2016 China consumer report is that, of the 10,000 consumers interviewed in 44 cities, as much as 55 percent were confident their incomes would increase significantly in the next five years - just 2 percentage points lower than in 2012. By comparison, McKinsey found only 32 percent consumers in the US and 30 percent in the UK agreed with the same statement in 2011.

Such extraordinary consumer confidence in China speaks volumes of the rise in salaries over the past years and people's deep faith in the government's promise to help double the average income between 2010 and 2020.

This is not to say Chinese consumers are unaware of the deteriorating condition of the economy, as the McKinsey report says. A growing number of them are seeking to save and invest. The still upbeat mood of consumers represents a rare source of momentum for growth that policymakers should make the best use of, in order to boost consumption-led growth, so that it can underpin the painful but necessary restructuring of the economy.

While the government is doing what needs to be done to reduce excess industrial capacity, policymakers should take the necessary measures to ensure the economic restructuring doesn't come at the expense of a big dent in consumers' purchasing power and confidence.

The government has earmarked 100 billion yuan ($15 billion) for relocating and retraining about 6 million workers in the coal and steel sectors in the next two years. And on Monday, Shanghai, following some provinces and regions, decided to lower the social security premium contributed by companies by 2.5 percentage points, in a bid to boost the real economy.

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