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Avoid the Thucydides trap

SHI YINHONG

After decades of globalization, today's geopolitical landscape is characterized by a high level of interdependence among countries, and the Sino-US relationship is no exception. To view Sino-US ties purely from the perspective of strategic rivalry is misleading, because this perception ignores the complexity of the relationship.

To avoid the Thucydides trap (the rivalry between an existing power and a rising one which could lead to war), decision makers in China and the US must craft policies based on a sound and solid judgment of each other's core interests, strategic intentions, actual capabilities and basic national psyches. Any major misunderstanding, underestimation, prejudice or misjudgment could have devastating consequences for both countries, and any attempt by one side to coerce the other would be politically reckless and strategically foolhardy.

In recent months, China has made it clear that its goal both in the short and long terms is to "persuade" the US to recognize and respect China's strategic interests in the West Pacific－an objective China considers to be reasonable. However, in pursing this understanding, China needs to adopt a more balanced and patient approach.

During the past three years or so, China has been trying to extend its influence in several directions, such as the Belt and Road Initiative in Eurasia, and a firmer stand on maritime disputes in the South China Sea and East China Sea. These are time-and energy-consuming strategic problems that need to be implemented or resolved step by step. China should be careful to avoid a trap of "strategic deficit" given its economic slowdown.

To minimize risks, its main strategy in the coming future should be to stabilize its growth, optimize its economic structure and deepen reform.

The author is director of the Center of US Studies, Renmin University of China.