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Forecast: EU GDP set to fall 4% in 2009

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-11-03 20:05

BRUSSELS: European Commission's autumn forecast for 2009-2001 showed here on Tuesday that EU economy is set to fall by 4 percent in 2009, expected to grow by 0.75 percent in 2010 and 1.5 percent in 2011.

The forecast projected that the economy of the 27-nation bloc "is on the road to a gradual recovery" and "will emerge from recession in the second half of this year, although for 2009 as a whole, GDP (gross domestic product) is still set to fall by some 4 percent."

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"A gradual recovery is expected with GDP forecast to grow by 0.75 percent in 2010 and around 1.5 percent in 2011," it said.

It said that the near-term rebound in activity followed from improvements in the external environment and financial conditions, as well as from the significant fiscal and monetary policy measures put in place.

"Further out, a number of factors are set to restrain private demand and thus, the strength of the recovery," the report said, "In particular, labor-market conditions will remain weak, with the unemployment rate projected to reach 10.25 percent in the EU."

The public deficit "is also expected to rise, to 7.5 percent of GDP in 2010, before falling back slightly in 2011 as the economy picks up and temporary measures gradually come to an end," said the forecast report.

"The EU economy is coming out of recession. This owes much to the ambitious measures taken by governments, central banks and the EU that have not only prevented a systemic meltdown but have kick-started the recovery," Joaquin Almunia, Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs, said upon releasing the forecast report.

"However, the road ahead is a challenging one," he added, saying that to maintain momentum and support the sustainability ofthe recovery, "it is essential that we fully implement all announced measures and complete the repair of the banking sector."

The EU top economic official urged to begin to look more towards the medium-term, and consider how best to address the adverse effects that the crisis has had on labor markets, public finances and potential growth.