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India forecasts growth of 7.1% for 2008-09

(Agencies)
Updated: 2009-02-09 23:05

NEW DELHI– India's economic growth is expected to slow to 7.1 percent in the current fiscal year - the lowest rate for six years and down from nine percent in 2007-08, according to official estimates released Monday.

Indian Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee (L) at a meeting with chief executives of public sector banks in New Delhi on February 2. India's economic growth is expected to slow to 7.1 percent in the current fiscal year - the lowest rate for six years and down from nine percent in 2007-08, according to official estimates released Monday. [Agencies]

The estimate for the year ending March 31 was released by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

It would be the slowest growth rate since 2003 and will place further pressure on Prime Minister Manmohan Singh's government ahead of general elections expected in April.

A number of economists have predicted that India's growth could fall below 7.0 percent this year as the global downturn takes its toll.

The CSO said growth in manufacturing output was expected to be around 4.1 percent, half the 2007-08 figure, while agricultural output would expand 2.6 percent, down from 4.9 percent.

Economists also believe India's fiscal position - already one of the world's worst - will deteriorate further with the interim budget to be presented February 16 by the government.

The budget deficit for the current year is expected to be up to triple its planned target of 2.5 percent of gross domestic product due to populist spending announced even before the global crisis hit.

"The global scenario is turning gloomier by the day and export-oriented sectors are feeling the heat," said Dharma Kriti Joshi, principal economist at Crisil credit rating agency.

The Indian government's stimulus packages and interest rate reductions should start having some effect from October onwards but "meanwhile we'll have a very tough time," he said.

Most economists are pencilling in growth of around 5.6 percent for next year.

Pranab Mukherjee, acting finance minister as well as foreign minister, pledged last week the government "will take further steps" to shield labour-intensive sectors from the downturn.

His words came days after data showed half a million workers lost their jobs in the three months to December and an export lobby group forecast the number would hit 1.5 million by end of this fiscal year as the global slump hits textile, jewellery and auto employees, among others.