国产热热热精品,亚洲视频久久】日韩,三级婷婷在线久久,99人妻精品视频,精品九热人人肉肉在线,AV东京热一区二区,91po在线视频观看,久久激情宗合,青青草黄色手机视频

USEUROPEAFRICAASIA 中文雙語Fran?ais
Opinion
Home / Opinion / Op-Ed Contributors

Healthy realty sector vital to yuan stability

By Jiang Chao | China Daily | Updated: 2017-01-09 07:41

Healthy realty sector vital to yuan stability

An employee counts yuan banknotes at a bank in Huaibei, Anhui province, June 22, 2010. [Photo/Agencies]

China faced the double challenge of an overheating housing market and depreciation of the yuan in 2016. To some extent, housing prices have been kept from dropping dramatically but the exchange rate of the Chinese currency has been its victim.

Therefore, it is highly important that in 2017 policymakers address the big risks posed by real estate-driven economic growth and take the necessary measures to ease the pressure for the yuan's depreciation.

People's Bank of China, China's central bank, introduced more liquidity to the market last year to ease the downward pressure on the economy. The total social and government financing was estimated to reach about 25 trillion yuan ($3.6 trillion) in 2016, 5 trillion yuan more than in 2015.

But the huge money supply did little to boost economic growth. On the contrary, the larger scale of money supply has driven up prices, especially in the real estate sector. In 2016, the prices of newly built homes in major first-tier cities increased by 28 percent year-on-year. The yuan has depreciated by about 7 percent and the yuan-dollar exchange rate has sunk to its lowest point since 2008.

China's foreign exchange reserves add up to about $3 trillion by the end of 2016, still huge compared with other countries. But over the past two years, the foreign exchange reserves decreased by 25 percent, a price to keep the yuan stable.

By analyzing China's statistics on balance of international payments, it is quite apparent that the current account and trade surplus still remains at a reasonable level but the capital account, which covers portfolio investment and borrowing, has witnessed outflows.

One reason is that housing prices are even higher than that in many other countries. Investors can make money by selling the housing units they own in China and purchase properties overseas. Encouraged by the long-time "go-out" strategy, enterprises that are burdened by huge land costs and heavy taxes have been accelerating their investment portfolio, too.

It is clearer than ever that China's real estate-driven economic growth is unsustainable. Investment has always been the most influential factor of China's growth, and real estate investment accounts for a large portion of the total investment. When sales pick up and housing prices rise sharply, investment in the real estate sector grows, thus, boosting relevant industrial sectors like steel and coal.

But history tells us that this kind of economic growth does not last forever. The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the 1997 Asian financial crisis and Japan's asset bubble in the 1990s are all closely connected with real estate bubble. And the results of the bursting of the real estate bubble were devastating. A real estate bubble could reduce the value of currency and disturb the financial market. So it is high time the policymakers cooled the housing market and deflated the housing price bubble.

A document released after the Central Economic Work Conference said that "houses are built to be inhabited, not for speculation", making the Chinese government's intention pretty clear. The tone reflected the determination of the central authorities to keep the housing bubble in check, which will arrest the outflow of capital and help stabilize the yuan's exchange rate.

The government needs to change the real estate-driven mode of economic growth, and promote further reforms, including easing the tax burden and reforming State-owned enterprises. These measures could greatly stimulate the real economy. Only when the real economy reinvigorates will investment flow into the industrial and service sectors, instead of flooding the housing market, and the real estate bubble be under control and the exchange rate stabilize.

The author is a macroeconomic analyst at Haitong Securities.

 

Most Viewed in 24 Hours
Copyright 1995 - . All rights reserved. The content (including but not limited to text, photo, multimedia information, etc) published in this site belongs to China Daily Information Co (CDIC). Without written authorization from CDIC, such content shall not be republished or used in any form. Note: Browsers with 1024*768 or higher resolution are suggested for this site.
License for publishing multimedia online 0108263

Registration Number: 130349
FOLLOW US
婺源县| 娄烦县| 柞水县| 陕西省| 台南县| 彭阳县| 丘北县| 莒南县| 敦化市| 定兴县| 伽师县| 黔江区| 开化县| 健康| 泾阳县| 博白县| 铜山县| 布尔津县| 延长县| 新余市| 瑞丽市| 吉安县| 陕西省| 嵊泗县| 石屏县| 额尔古纳市| 万年县| 贡嘎县| 法库县| 安康市| 高邮市| 陆丰市| 本溪| 进贤县| 定日县| 调兵山市| 武隆县| 阳原县| 镇江市| 英山县| 贵定县|