Will Beijing housing prices fall after 2008? If you're one of those who have scrambled to buy a flat in Beijing in the run-up to the Games, you may not want to read the heated debate in the media.
The information you get may be a little disappointing. While some expect the property market to continue booming after the Games, others predict a bursting of the bubble because the government will continue to dampen speculation through a slew of new property policies. The subsiding Games fever after 2008 will also have an impact, if the experience of past Olympic host cities is any guide.
However, if you have already begun fretting about your money, you may be encouraged by the market response to the just-launched Guo Ao Village project that defies the wisdom of some real estate gurus.
The apartment development with dozens of raw concrete six- to nine-story buildings is within walking distance of three main Olympic venues, including the Bird's Nest and the Water Cube, and sits right across the Olympic Forest Park that will be a green lung for residents. The flats will be ready later this year to be home to Olympians during the summer Games.
Great Event Gives Birth to Great Lifestyle, read the billboards on the construction site, as the developer woos local home buyers who might have a fair chance to find his or her new home to have been used by a favorite star.
But buyer beware. Before owning your share of the Olympic lifestyle, you should do some risk analysis. The following are a few observations I have made during my visit to the make-shift sales office in a convention center conference room that features a sand table in a corner and a row of mortgage-loan officers seated against the wall.
First, there is no sample unit or specific information on promised renovation after the athletes' use. You'd have to be comfortable with the information asymmetry if you want to buy.
Second, the great Olympic lifestyle doesn't come cheap, with the flats sold at high-end residential market prices. There are no hefty discounts although you're buying off plans.
Third, the flats will be delivered more than two years and a half later from now, a time when many experts say the housing prices in Beijing will start falling.
So it was surprising that since the project's late-December launch, about half of the 342 flats of the first phase have already been snatched up, with sales contracts worth more than half a billion yuan ($64 million).
Sales agents say that some people are buying the flats as residential homes, while some others are collecting the properties as part of the Olympic legacy. Because the smaller flats are already gone, the collections now start from 3.4 million yuan ($436,000) for a four-room flat.
As of the last week, no sales were made to interested foreigners as the developers had been awaiting clear guideline since restrictions were imposed on foreign investment in real estate half a year ago.
But these buyers, who some believe have in a large part caused the soaring housing prices in the city, will be back soon. Beijing has just announced that foreigners can buy a house in Beijing as long as they can produce a certificate issued by local police to prove that they have stayed in China for at least one year.
Considering that more domestic and foreign property investors are looking at medium- and long-term opportunities in Beijing, I am inclined to favor "hold" or even "buy" recommendations.
