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十一月為堅(jiān)信黃金價(jià)值的投資者帶來(lái)了新的不利消息：該月黃金價(jià)格下降6%，是6月以來(lái)單月下降最多的月份，使2013年度的黃金投資形式更為嚴(yán)峻，也結(jié)束了長(zhǎng)達(dá)13年的黃金市場(chǎng)繁榮。黃金價(jià)格今年已經(jīng)下跌了25%，是自2000年以來(lái)的首次。
相比之下，兩年前黃金市場(chǎng)正直旺季。2011年9月，金價(jià)達(dá)到歷史最高點(diǎn)每盎司1921美元，十年間上漲了550%。金融危機(jī)期間投資者熱衷黃金投資，因?yàn)橐话銇?lái)說(shuō)股票、債券、現(xiàn)金走勢(shì)不利時(shí)黃金價(jià)格會(huì)上漲。
由于各國(guó)央行不斷向經(jīng)濟(jì)注資，對(duì)通貨膨脹的恐慌使得黃金投資更為誘人。但是隨著歐債危機(jī)緩和，美國(guó)及其他國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)復(fù)蘇征兆，投資者減輕了對(duì)通脹的擔(dān)憂。
人們發(fā)現(xiàn)更多的著名投資者已經(jīng)離開黃金投資市場(chǎng)。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣布在就業(yè)和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)看好的基礎(chǔ)上放寬債券購(gòu)買，這一消息直接引發(fā)了金價(jià)的下跌。
市場(chǎng)開始更加追逐風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，不再保守地將資產(chǎn)穩(wěn)定在沒(méi)有利息和紅利收益的黃金投資上，美國(guó)股票價(jià)格也創(chuàng)下空前新高。
荷蘭銀行的喬吉特·伯勒說(shuō)：“黃金泡沫已經(jīng)破碎，此前支持黃金投資的推手可能會(huì)讓貴金屬價(jià)格降得更低。我們預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)出現(xiàn)更大規(guī)模的拋售?！?/p>
伯勒估計(jì)，盡管有中國(guó)市場(chǎng)的支持，金價(jià)還是會(huì)在明年跌至每盎司1000美元，到2015年跌至每盎司800美元。
November brought more bad news for believers in the eternal power ofgold: the commodity saw its sharpest monthly price fall since June. This month's 6% drop makes 2013 a terrible year for gold, and is set to mark the end of a 13-year boom. Gold is heading for its first annual fall since 2000 after shedding a quarter of its value this year.
Things were so different in September 2011, when it hit a record price of $1,921 an ounce, a gain of more than 550% in just over a decade. Investors had piled in during the financial crisis: the price of gold traditionally rises when assets such as shares, bonds and cash are threatened.
Gold maintained its allure as central banks pumped money into their economies, raising fears of runaway inflation. But then the easing of fears for the eurozone, and signs of economic recovery in the US and other economies, steadied nerves.
There were few starker signs of the reversal of gold's fortunes than the news that Britain's second-biggest pawnbroker was melting down stock to raise money. Last week Albemarle & Bond admitted it was smelting jewellery to sell for quick cash in order to stay within its lending limits. As recently as 2011 the company went on a gold-fuelled expansion spree and declared "the age of the pawnbroker".
More famous players have also been caught out. The gold fund of John Paulson, the hedge fund manager who made billions betting against the US housing market, is down 63% this year.
The key to the fall is the improving US economy and the response of the Federal Reserve. Gold's troubles began when the Fed said it would ease off its bond purchase programme amid encouraging news on jobs and growth.
With less need to keep money tied up in gold, which pays no interest or dividend, the markets turned "risk-on": investors scrambled for new shares in Royal Mail and other flotations, and US shares are at all-time highs.
Georgette Boele at Dutch bank ABN Amro said: "The gold bubble has burst and ... more of gold's previous supportive drivers are about to push the precious metal much lower. As such we expect additional large sell-offs."
In India, traditionally the world's biggest consumer of gold, the government has imposed punishing duty on gold purchases which has led to mass recycling of some of the 20,000 tonnes of gold stashed in Indian homes.
Consumers in China have been buying gold as they become more affluent. But Boele predicts that despite this, it will fall to $1,000 an ounce next year and $800 in 2015.
（來(lái)源：中國(guó)日?qǐng)?bào)網(wǎng)愛新聞iNews 編輯：丹妮）
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