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I think it's population growth and jobs!
freeman Updated: 2004-03-10 09:23
This is really a good topic, and every Chinese, esp. those sitting at the very top policy-making positions in Beijing ought to take a serious and through look into this intrigue.
Personally, I don't think technological advance of manufacturing is at present stage the most paramount issue facing china, though it is very very much crucial. my arguments:
About 20 years ago, urbanities in Beijing, shanghai and all other cities had to queue up to buy a color tv set, imported from Japan or elsewhere. Now you see the reality: domestic market are dominated by china brand tv sets, huge sets are being exported..
About 10 years ago, it was a really great personal achievement if one's hand held a cellular phone, no matter how big it was. nowadays, china is already world's largest mobile phone market, with domestically-made brands sold to many foreign land.
About 5 years ago, only a tiny of Chinese urban families could afford a car, a truly luxury item. now, at least 20 per cent of Beijing, shanghai, Guangzhou families own cars. I bet, in less than 8-10 years, cars made in china will go into majority of urban families, and in the meantime, nice-looking technological-savvy Chinese cars will be exported to foreign countries... Price? pretty inexpensive, for sure, then.
In a foreseeable period of time, competitiveness of china-made products will continue to be there, because, gimmicks to make cars is not that hard to learn and grasp, and china has a huge pool of cheap labor.
Ironically, if my seeing it is right, the huge number of laborers is, and will be, the hardest nut to crack in this country. why is that?
It becomes increasing difficult to find a job these days. look at this year's college graduates who mass every job fairs, but only a very few of them could land jobs.. let's move our eyes to those urban job seekers, the laid-offs from enterprises, and the sadles of farmers who stand in urban streets helplessly begging for jobs....
To make it worse, the population remains growing, some estimate, not until the year of 2015 that china for the first time in history sees net drop of its population. by that year, china's population will top 1.56 billion. how to feed them, how to give them jobs, how to care for the 25-30% of them, who will be more than 60 years old? problems, huge problems...
I strongly favor a sterner enforcement of the family-planning policy, and strongly take the side of keeping a rather high economic growth pace, say, annual 8-10% of GDP, backed up by enlarged investment and foreign trade, so as the economy could generate "enough" jobs! china's doors should be opened wider, to attract more foreign investment. bilateral and multilateral agreements should be signed to augment china's product export. do not worry about the technology content of china-mades, because market competition at the world stage is Real, which will guide china's manufacturers to turn out nothing but high-quality and inexpensive products, like present-day china-made color tv sets, mobile phones, and would-be china-made cars.
So, I think, population growth and jobs are the biggest challenge facing this country.
| The above content represents the view of the author only. |
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