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A new report by the Paris-based International
Energy Agency says world energy demand is expected to surge by up to 60
percent by the year 2030. The group says much of the energy demand will
come from Asian countries.
The new study comes as world oil prices are already at near record
highs, trading at above $54 a barrel. If oil prices remain at these high
levels, the International Energy Agency's executive director Claude Mandil
warns, it could effect economic growth and jobs in developing countries.
The energy agency predicts that the bulk of rising energy demand in the
coming years will be coming from developing countries like China and
India. In 30 years time, the agency's chief economist, Fatih Birol says,
developing countries will account for
bout half the world's total energy demand.
"They will be more and more vulnerable to higher oil prices in the
future if oil prices go up," he said. "For example China today imports
about 30 percent of its oil needs. And in 2030 this will be more than
double."
The agency's energy study also predicts that fossil fuels will continue
to be the main energy source for many countries, and that oil demand will
increase by roughly 1.6 percent annually. By the year 2030, the energy
agency says, world demand for oil will hover around 121 million barrels a
day, compared to current demand of about 82 million barrels a day.
In addition, the report warns of short-term risks to energy security,
because an increasing share of oil will be pumped from volatile regions
like Iraq, and those with the risk of political instability, like Saudi
Arabia. The organization predicts that more and more oil will be coming
from fewer countries, primarily those located in the Middle East. It says
Russia's share in world oil exports will fall in the coming years.
In order to ensure more secure, long-term supplies, Mr. Birol says,
countries must step up efforts to find alternative means to meet their
energy supplies. He says governments, in particular, should speed up
research and deployment of environmentally friendly new technologies.
The new study also predicts that demand for natural gas will double
over the next three decades. Once again, the bulk of the increase will
come from developing countries in Africa, Latin America and
Asia. | 
