国产热热热精品,亚洲视频久久】日韩,三级婷婷在线久久,99人妻精品视频,精品九热人人肉肉在线,AV东京热一区二区,91po在线视频观看,久久激情宗合,青青草黄色手机视频

Misreading Chinese rebalancing

Updated: 2013-07-31 09:49

By Stephen S. Roach (China Daily)

  Print Mail Large  Medium  Small    

Misreading Chinese rebalancing

The punditocracy has once again succumbed to the "China Crash" syndrome - a malady that seems to afflict economic and political commentators every few years. Never mind the recurring false alarms over the past couple of decades. This time is different, argues the chorus of China skeptics.

Yes, China's economy has slowed. While the crisis-battered West could only dream of matching the 7.5 percent annual GDP growth rate that China's National Bureau of Statistics reported for the second quarter of 2013, it certainly does represent an appreciable slowdown from the 10 percent growth trend recorded from 1980 to 2010.

But it is not just the slowdown that has the skeptics worked up. There are also concerns over excessive debt and related fears of a fragile banking system; worries about the ever-present property bubble collapsing; and, most important, the presumed lack of meaningful progress on economic rebalancing - the long-awaited shift from a lopsided export- and investment-led growth model to one driven by internal private consumption.

With respect to the last point, recent shifts in the composition of Chinese GDP appear disconcerting at first glance. Consumption (private as well as public) contributed only 3.4 percentage points to economic growth in the first half of this year, and an estimated 2.5 percentage points in the April-June period - a deceleration on a sequential quarterly basis that underscores a cyclical, or temporary, weakening in Chinese consumer demand.

At the same time, the contribution from investment surged from 2.3 percentage points of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2013 to 5.9 percentage points in the second quarter. In other words, rather than shifting from investment-led to consumer-led growth, China appears to be continuing along its investment-led growth track.

For an unbalanced economy that has under-consumed and over-invested for the better part of three decades, this is unnerving. After all, China's leadership has been talking about rebalancing for years - especially since the enactment of the pro-consumption 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-15)in March 2011. It was one thing when rebalancing failed to occur as the economy was growing rapidly; for the skeptics, it is another matter altogether when rebalancing is stymied in a "slow-growth" climate.

This is superficial thinking, at best. The rebalancing of any economy - a major structural transformation in the sources of output growth - can hardly be expected to occur overnight. It takes strategy, time, and determination to pull it off. China has an ample supply of all three.

Previous Page 1 2 Next Page

Schedule

President Xi visits Central Asia, attends G20, SCO summits

Sept 3 to 13: Pay state visits to Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan.

Sept 5 to 6: Attend the eighth Leaders' Summit of the Group of Twenty (G20) in St. Petersburg.

Sept 13: Attend the 13th Meeting of the Council of Heads of Member States of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) in Bishkek, the capital of Kyrgyzstan.

Forum

Chinese economy will not collapse

The Chinese government has steered their megacarrier through choppy seas quite successfully.

China's role in G20

I saw a China that is much more confident to put itself forward at G20 summit.

Photos


Beijing backs truce bid in Syria


Ties with Kyrgyzstan upgraded


Student's rare blood bonds Kazakhstan and China


Xi 'travels in time' along the ancient trade route


Xi in Kyrgyzstan for state visit, SCO summit


Silk Road to take on a new look

堆龙德庆县| 黑龙江省| 多伦县| 松潘县| 南川市| 金乡县| 伊川县| 三门县| 敖汉旗| 萨嘎县| 梧州市| 抚远县| 车致| 德格县| 潜江市| 金寨县| 南皮县| 双流县| 德清县| 嘉义市| 南城县| 喀什市| 浮梁县| 紫云| 绥宁县| 瓦房店市| 峨眉山市| 高要市| 朝阳区| 洛宁县| 安塞县| 安庆市| 凌云县| 兰坪| 罗源县| 大竹县| 曲周县| 石狮市| 屯昌县| 汉阴县| 广宗县|