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Inflation on the way, but slowly: expert

(Xinhua)
Updated: 2009-11-20 15:54

BEIJING: Inflation would come as expected, but it won't be very serious within the next 12 months given the overcapacity of the manufacturing sectors, an experienced economist said Friday.

Jing Ulrich (or Li Jing), managing director and chairman of JPMorgan's China equities and commodities business, made her remarks at the 2009 Business Week CEO Forum in Beijing.

Related readings:  Central bank stresses inflation management amid credit boom  Economist: Inflation not to happen in China within 2 years  HK inflation to remain reined-in: finance chief  Govt concerned about inflation expectations: official  Do not worry about inflation — worry about asset prices and quality

Not only China, but also other countries including the United States faced the problems of overcapacity, Li said.

She explained that the expected inflation refers to that concerning the finished products and commodities for daily use, such as automobiles, computers and clothes, but she gave no specific forecast on how inflation would develop in the coming 12 months.

"I don't think the prices of these products will rise significantly, however, manufacturers would face heavy cost pressures next year because of rising prices of resources, she said.

She forecast prices hikes for such resources as oil and iron ore thanks to huge demand from emerging economies like China and India.

Ulrich also said prices of real estate and equities would continue going up because of extremely ample liquidity.

Since last month, Chinese analysts and economists have predicted that the Chinese economy would face inflation in 2010. They had also warned against risks of possible asset bubbles owing to the excessive liquidity.

Chinese officials have said the government would make efforts to balance inflation perception and economic growth as the government would continue to implement the relatively easy monetary policy.