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December 11 2006 was the day of reckoning for China's banks, as China's financial market faced an onslaught from world banking giants. Five years ago when Beijing entered the World Trade Organization, it promised that all foreign banks would be given full access to renminbi retail business as of this date.

Preparing for those changes, foreign lenders have sought multibillion-dollar stakes in local banks, expanded their branch networks and aggressively targeted wealthy Chinese clients with a wide range of financial products. By the end of June, there were 71 foreign banks on the mainland with 183 branches. It is possible they may soon go on the offensive and attempt to expand and take market shares from domestic lenders.

Like other industrial sectors, the domestic banking industry urgently needs foreign competition to remain stable and strong. Their traditional role as government lending machines will only incur mountains of bad debt and keep the annual economic cycle low.

However, nobody is sure of the outcome of this crucial reform measure, which is causing some analysts to worry about the safety of China's economy. People are wondering whether the Big Four commercial banks, led by the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) and the Bank of China (BOC), would be able to survive the fierce competition with international giants like Citigroup, HSBC and the Bank of America, which have spent billions of dollars and devoted huge resources to positioning themselves for this moment.

In March 2004, right after the SARS outbreak, China faced a new challenge. Premier Wen Jiabao announced at a packed press conference in the Great Hall of the People in central Beijing that China's banks would eventually die if they weren't forced to compete with their foreign counterparts.

Wen was right although at the time he himself was not confident of the result of the drastic reform measure. Under his watch, a series of market-oriented restructuring measures have been implemented.

The central government re-capitalized ICBC, BOC and the China Construction Bank with multibillion-dollar government bailouts after writing off huge amounts of bad debt. The three also introduced international bank giants as strategic investment partners to draw in money and advanced management skills, in an attempt to control risks and improve services. Now the three domestic lenders are all listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange and their shares have gained remarkable ground as investors look to grab a piece of the big China pie.

However, the fate of the China Agriculture Bank, one of the Big Four, remains to be seen as decision-makers do not know how to deal with its hefty bad loans accumulated through decades of blind lending. There is increasing opposition reflected in online web chatrooms that the government should not use hard-earned foreign currency reserves to bail out badly-managed domestic banks.

Though global banks may want to tap into China's US$4 trillion pool of household and commercial wealth and its fast-growing market for financial services, they are unlikely to win a major share of the industry anytime soon.

But, the battle will be fierce and could prove ugly. The challenge facing China's domestic banks is grave, because customers compare the services provided, and nobody will tolerate waiting for up to an hour at the bank just to make a simple transaction. More people will be interested in earning real and big money from their deposits, rather than just receiving a tiny amount of interest.

After the fight over home appliances, mobile phones and auto vehicles, the next battle will be for our money.