By 2017, 4G mobile phone shipments will outnumber 3G mobile phone shipments. IDC predicts that, with an increasing share of upstream 4G chip vendors engaging in mass production, the push by China's three major operators, and the support from terminal vendors, the shipments of 4G mobile phones will outnumber those of 3G mobile phones in 2017. That will further promote the development of the entire mobile communications and mobile internet industry.

By the end of 2013, the market share of smartphones with screens 5-inch and above will exceed 20%. Influenced by the operators' demands for customized product specifications (large screen over 5 inches, dual-core/quad-core) and the positive effect of Samsung's GALAXY S and Note series on the growth of large-screen mobile phone market, large-screen mobile phones are gradually becoming acceptable to consumers. As a result, mobile phone vendors quickly responded with the release of a large amount of smartphones with 5-inch above screens. IDC data indicates that, as of Q1 2013, the market share of 5-inch above smartphones reached 7.5%, up 74% over the previous quarter. IDC forecasts that this figure will exceed 20% by the end of 2013.

The market share of smartphones with screens 5-inch and above will exceed 20%.[Graph/IDC]

Large domestic vendors will acquire upstream and downstream businesses to close gaps in supply chain. Domestic brands, which have encountered many bottlenecks in developing high-end products, such as product patent subjected to limits and core components controlled by large foreign vendors, need to urgently integrate the upstream and downstream of the industry chain or consider merger and acquisition (M&A) strategies. IDC expects that many M&As in relation to the industry chain will emerge in the next two years.

Vendors will prepare themselves for mobile internet and communications to enhance stickiness or vie for mobile Internet entrance. It is difficult for mobile phone vendors to differentiate by simply upgrading hardware for higher premium. Getting ready for mobile internet services, such as app store, voice input, mobile browser, mobile desktop and cloud service, has become an inevitable competition strategy for vendors to enhance stickiness and vie for mobile internet entrance in the future.

Efforts will be made to develop wearable terminals and mobile services such as somatosensory live action. Along with the development of flexible materials and sensing devices, mobile phone peripherals and wearable terminals will enter the development stage; meanwhile, industrial applications (including health care and education) and consumer services (such as life tools, gaming and shopping) will attract more attention.