SHANGHAI - For Jiang Ke, a 32-year-old employee of a multinational corporation, to buy or not to buy a house in the current housing market, clouded as it is by negative sentiment and tightening policies, is a decision he can't afford to get wrong.

Jiang is planning to marry next year, and over the past five years, he has witnessed a meteoric rise in the price of housing in Shanghai and has missed several chances to buy a home. Now, he jokes that he is like a gambler with shrinking stakes in the housing casino and any mistake will reduce him to the status of a broken loser.

"I regret not proposing to my girlfriend earlier. If I had, we would have saved a lot of money, and had more precious free time instead of working overtime to earn extra pay," said Jiang with a bittersweet smile.

Jiang and his fiancee's five-year romance has been accompanied by a threefold rise in the local housing price. With the level of downpayments unchanged, their dream home has moved from downtown to the outer-ring community.

It's now time for Jiang to make a decision, but he is hesitating because rumors are spreading that a sizable price cut will happen across the city very soon.

Jiang and his family have saved 600,000 yuan ($94,000) for the 30 percent downpayment on the couple's future home, but finding a downtown apartment priced at around 2 million yuan is very difficult.

"We have rummaged around many corners for bargains in the downtown area, but there are hardly any reasonably priced homes within our budget," Jiang adds.

He's also worried that the rumored price decline will bring about nothing more than the next price hike, but his wait-and-see strategy has hurt him several times.

Jiang admits he has a Plan B in case he cannot find a home in a good location and at a low price. "I'm searching for a good apartment to rent over the short term," he says.

Along with the cautious buyers are the rational sellers. Qian Wen had intended to sell his one-bedroom house and buy a bigger one to welcome the baby due next year. However, the plan has been shelved temporarily as Qian and his wife will have to pay a high rate of tax on the sale because they've owned their house for less than five years.

"We don't want to lower the price too much. Otherwise, we will not have enough money for the next home. We are waiting for a better time instead," said Qian.

According to Song Huiyong, a research director with Shanghai Centaline Property Consultants Ltd, buyers would be wise to wait a little longer, as prices in the secondary market are still high compared with those of new residential properties, which are being advertised with a discount of up to 6,000 yuan a square meter in the suburban areas.

In October, the secondary market witnessed the lowest level of monthly transactions for five years. A total of 8,100 homes changed hands during the month, signaling a decline of 21.4 percent month-on-month, or 40.2 percent year-on-year, according to the Shanghai research center of Century 21 China Real Estate.

"At the moment, only those projects providing a hefty discount are attracting buyers, and they've contributed a large proportion of the city's total trading volume," said Song.

While prices across the city are holding up well, the consistent downward volume of trade will eventually bring about a decline in prices, according to Ye Houbiao, the general manager of Century 21 China Real Estate in Shanghai.