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Economic recovery still on track

By Jing Ulrich (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-09-21 08:46

Fixed asset investment

China's fixed asset investment (FAI) grew 33 percent year-on-year in the first eight months of 2009, compared to 32.9 percent growth from January through July.

FAI, fueled by the government's stimulus package, has become the most important contributor to China's GDP growth.

On a monthly basis, FAI growth has moderated slightly in the last two months, reflecting a slower pace of state investment - which was front-loaded earlier in the year. Nevertheless, the pace of investment remains robust by any reasonable measure. FAI in the real estate sector climbed by 24.6 percent year-on-year in July, up from 21.7 percent a month earlier, reflecting the rebound in housing sales in the first half.

People's Bank of China adviser Fan Gang recently told a CEO forum that China's property investment growth might rebound to about 30 percent next year.

We expect private sector investment, fueled by the recovery in housing construction, to become a more important driver of investment growth in the next several quarters.

SpecialCoverage: China Biz & Economic Statistics Related readings:  China's August CPI falls 1.2%, PPI falls 7.9%  China's PMI of manufacturing sector rises to 54% in Aug  CPC Central Committee stresses sound, fast economic growth  Sound economy leads sustained recovery China's export far from full recovery - analysts

China's economic stimulus has clearly been effective, but investment in some areas has driven up capacity to excessive levels.

The State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology have recently resolved to curb overcapacity and unnecessary expansion in several industries by restricting market entry and limiting approval of new projects for a period of three years.

While we expect funding for stimulus projects to remain adequate, concerns about overcapacity will bring stronger curbs to discourage irrational investment.

M2 money supply

Growth in China's broad M2 measure of money supply registered at 28.5 percent in August, compared to 28.4 percent year-on-year in July.

The People's Bank of China announced that new loans edged higher to 410.5 billion yuan ($60.1 billion) in August, up from 355.9 billion yuan ($52.1 billion) in July.

This brings aggregate new lending in 2009 to 8.13 trillion yuan, up 162.5 percent year-on-year from the first eight months of 2008. New loan creation is easing as the front-loading of new lending runs its course and banks become more mindful of credit risks.

Early in August, the People's Bank of China, NDRC and Ministry of Finance held a joint press conference reiterating the government's proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy stance.

Slowing credit growth contributed to A-share market volatility throughout the month.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission recently stated that loan growth will be more stable in the second half of 2009.

Steps are being taken to ensure adherence to sound lending practices. Without mentioning specifics, the People's Bank of China will study the use of regulatory tools to adjust bank-lending activity.

The author is managing director and chairman of JP Morgan's China equities and commodities business. The views expressed here are her own.

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