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Is China's real estate recovery real?

(chinadaily.com.cn)
Updated: 2009-06-18 13:48

Near-term price adjustments, therefore, look unavoidable given the current economic downturn and oversupply in high-end residential housing, they say.

Even so, the authors stress that this does not reflect the overall market.

"At the national level, China's growth in GDP per capita is twice as fast as that in property growth. Meanwhile, housing appears to be quite affordable based on the price-to-disposable income ratio, even by international standards."

Michael Klibaner, Jones Lang LaSalle's head of research for Shanghai, showed in a recent report how government measures have improved affordability.

For middle-income earners in Shanghai, the monthly housing loan burden was lightened from 56 percent of disposable income in February 2008 to 42 percent a year later, he explained. At the same time, house prices stagnated in the city last year while incomes rose.

Despite the positive signs for China's real estate market overall, even optimists acknowledge some risks. For one thing, analysts distrust inventory figures.

The amount of floor space completed in 2008 looked strangely low to some observers, fueling suspicion that developers, under intense financial pressure last year, understated completion levels in order to avoid paying fees on inventory.

Meantime, although in April land purchases showed their first expansion since June last year, new building starts, a better indicator of future activity, remained negative.

Reproduced with permission from Knowledge@Wharton, http://knowledgeatwharton.com.cn. Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania. All rights reserved.

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