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China to avoid post-Olympics slowdown

(China Daily)
Updated: 2008-08-07 16:26

Although some studies suggest the Olympics host nation may lag in GDP growth after the Games, most economists in China believe the nation will defy historical trends, CNN reported.

The seven-year run-up to the Olympics has seen China's white-hot economy chug along at more than 10 percent growth every year. More than half a million visitors are expected, and with the confluence of online streaming of the Games with traditional broadcast, this Summer Olympics could become the most watched in history, CNN said.

According to analyses by HSBC of every Summer Olympic Games since the end of World War II, the GDP growth of the Olympic host nation drops below global averages. "There is always a slowdown after the Games," said Robbert Van Batenburg, head of research for Louis Capital Markets in New York. For China, this "would be particularly troublesome as it already faces the risk of a supply glut," he said.

Host cities often predict a post-Olympics tourism boom in the afterglow of hosting the Olympics. The actual record, however, refutes this. A study by the Center of Policy Studies at Monash University in Australia shows that tourism to Sydney after the 2000 Olympics grew less than tourism to Australia as a whole.

Analysts are particularly concerned about the global impact of a post-Olympics slowdown.

However, most Chinese economists believe China's economy will defy historical expectations of a post-Olympics hangover. In June, Chinese economist Fan Gang, a member of the central bank monetary policy board,said: "China is a big country. Beijing is small. Even if Beijing's investment in infrastructure drops sharply after the Games, it would not have a significant impact on the whole economy."

His comments echoed those made in May by the new World Bank chief economist Justin Lin Yifu, who predicted investments in infrastructure across the country would continue, especially as it hosts the World Expo and Asian Games in 2010.