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The exchange rate of the renminbi, the Chinese currency, is expected to appreciate by some five percent to one U.S. dollar for 7.44 yuan, according to the Xinhua Economic Analysis Report released Monday.

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The report projected that the pace of RMB appreciation would be faster in the first half of 2007 than in the second half.

Xinhua Economic Analysis Reports are regular products by a team of more than 80 economic analysts under the Xinhua Economic Information Department. The latest issue of the reports reviewed the country's 10 key indices in the economic and financial sectors and made projections on possible changes in the coming year.

In 2006, the value of the RMB rose 3.28 percent against the dollar, with an accelerating trend from 0.66 percent in the first quarter to 1.15 percent in the fourth. The central parity price closed at one U.S. dollar for 7.8141 yuan, the lowest of the year.

The report held that the short-term RMB exchange rate will be influenced by the fluctuation between the dollar and other currencies, but in the long run, it depends on the progress of China's exchange rate reforms. Stable appreciation in small steps is generally expected.

Earlier in December, China's State Information Center predicted a 3-4 percent appreciation of the yuan in 2007, while the Bank of America and Deutsche Bank expected a rise of 4-6 percent and 4.5 percent, respectively.

China's foreign exchange policy is in line with the pace of China's economic development and the daily floating band is enough to allow sufficient appreciation of the RMB, according to Chinese economist Fan Gang.

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