Stable long-term oil supply predicted
Updated: 2006-05-29 08:42
China can maintain a healthy oil supply with new discoveries in its sea and
land-locked western regions, despite growing exploration difficulties, experts
claim.
Zhai Guangming, an academician of the Chinese Academy of
Engineering, said China's annual oil output could reach 185 million to 195
million tons.
Speaking at this weekend's forum on the nation's energy
strategy, he said:"China is able to maintain such an output for some 10 to 15
years."
China produced 182 million tons of crude oil in 2005 with its
dependency on overseas oil and oil products reaching 42.9 per
cent.
But according to Zhai, China can expect to see a stable
growth of its proved oil reserves for at least 10 years.
Zhu Jianjun,
research division director of the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC),
China's largest oil producer, said that there is potential for more oil to be
discovered, despite the increasing difficulty in oil exploration.
By
fully developing old oil fields in the east and increasing drilling in the west
and offshore areas, China's annual crude oil output could surpass 200 million
tons by 2020 and remain at 170 million tons by 2030, said Zhu.
The
National Development and Reform Commission has predicated that China will
consume 330-350 million tons of oil by 2010.
"We should step up efforts
to produce as much as possible while strengthening energy-saving measures," said
Zhu.
He said major oil fields in East China have entered the output
reduction phase and new fields in the west and offshore are becoming the
country's major suppliers.
Many potential resources are spread across
geologically-complicated regions such as deserts, loess plateaus and offshore in
deep water, and will need more advanced oil exploration technology to extract,
he said.
Zhu warned that China's oil supply is facing risks, which need
to be solved through increased domestic production.
"The risk isn't a
shortage, but uneven distribution, which is causing instability in the world oil
market," he said, adding that soaring oil prices will be the first hurdle China
faces.
Statistics indicate that China spent US$43 billion importing oil
in 2004, rising to over US$50 billion in 2005.
Zhu predicted that China's
spending on oil imports will keep rising as its imports increase and the
international oil price remains sky high.
Transport also poses a problem
for China's oil supply, he said.
Currently, more than 70 per cent of
China's oil imports pass through the Malacca Straits in Southeast
Asia.
"As the channel is now near to capacity, other channels have to be
found," said Zhu.
To counter the risks, China must increase its domestic oil
and natural gas supply as well as developing overseas sources to ensure
diversified supply and transportation channels, he said.
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