国产热热热精品,亚洲视频久久】日韩,三级婷婷在线久久,99人妻精品视频,精品九热人人肉肉在线,AV东京热一区二区,91po在线视频观看,久久激情宗合,青青草黄色手机视频

Business / View

Caution and commitment in Government Work Report

By Louis Kuijs (China Daily) Updated: 2015-03-06 08:22

A lower growth target is in line with the emphasis in the report on the new normal and the need to stress the quality of growth rather than the quantity. But at the same time, as noted, growth remains a key objective of policymaking.

Meanwhile, the downward pressures on growth - in large part stemming from the weakness in real estate - are likely to persist in 2015, especially in the first half of this year. Therefore, accommodative macroeconomic policy will be needed to ensure that GDP growth will not fall too much below 7 percent. Will such a macro stance materialize?

On the fiscal side, the government targets a higher official fiscal deficit but keeps it below 3 percent of GDP. As the space for monetary policy expansion is constrained by the already high leverage, it makes sense to rely more on proper (bond-financed) fiscal policy to support growth. In addition, borrowing from the financial sector by local government investment vehicles - which has amounted to 4 percent of GDP or so in recent years - is meant to be constrained this year by the introduction of a new framework to better regulate and monitor local government borrowing. Thus, in order to avoid a "fiscal cliff" - a dramatic squeeze of the associated infrastructure spending - it makes sense to raise the official fiscal deficit. However, China's government remains reluctant to accept significantly higher official fiscal deficits.

The rise in the total fiscal deficit from 1.8 percent in 2014 to the 2.3 percent budgeted for 2015, with additional spending financed by savings from last year's budget, constitutes a significant fiscal expansion. Nonetheless, only a modest part of the local borrowing from the financial sector has been officially converted into an official fiscal deficit. This means that, realistically, some of the borrowing from the financial sector by local government investment vehicles will need to continue this year to avoid a "fiscal cliff".

On the monetary front, the report does not indicate a major change in stance or operational toolkit. The government commits to maintaining steady growth of credit and aggregate financing and increasing the velocity of monetary aggregates. With regard to the toolkit, the report commits to using both interest rates and various quantitative instruments

Concretely, the central bank will likely further cut benchmark lending and deposit interest rates this year, carry out more domestically-oriented monetary operations including further cuts in the reserve requirement ratios amid much lower foreign reserves inflows, and management of banks' credit quota and loan-to-deposit ratios is bound to remain accommodative.

Looking at the reform plans in various areas, there are relatively concrete plans in several areas where reform is politically relatively easy and/or where reforms are good for growth or relieving financial constraints.

Hot Topics

Editor's Picks
...
岳西县| 连云港市| 正定县| 浦东新区| 栖霞市| 京山县| 青铜峡市| 黄浦区| 翼城县| 洪洞县| 通州区| 岑巩县| 德昌县| 开封市| 肇东市| 永济市| 华阴市| 舞钢市| 孝义市| 兴仁县| 汨罗市| 新干县| 林西县| 思南县| 福安市| 高邑县| 大渡口区| 杭州市| 大荔县| 三门县| 定西市| 龙南县| 洛南县| 南靖县| 九龙县| 平顺县| 汶上县| 萨迦县| 海城市| 柘城县| 梁河县|