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China likely to displace Germany as top exporter

By Liu Jie and Ding Qingfen (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-07-24 08:04

Chinese officials and experts said they are not too concerned with the World Trade Organization prediction that China is set to overtake Germany as the biggest merchandise exporter this year.

Containers being loaded at the Tianjin port. China may soon overtake Germany as the biggest exporter. [China Daily]

Chen Rongkai, a division director of the Ministry of Commerce, told China Daily that China's exports in real terms surpassed Germany in 2008, but due to currency rate factor, Germany remained at the top slot last year.

"The ranking change is likely to happen, however, what I am more concerned is how the nation can optimize its export structure and increase the portion of high value-added commodities in the total export basket as soon as possible," Song Hong, senior professor with Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told China Daily.

According to latest World Trade Report released on Tuesday by the WTO, Germany remained at the top position in terms of merchandise exports last year, with export volume amounting to $1.47 trillion. China was placed second at $1.43 trillion.

The WTO chief economist made the prediction that China could be the world's No 1 exporter on Tuesday, citing fragile recovery in global exports and a weak European performance as core reasons.

The prediction was also based on the slower pace in decline of Chinese exports last month. Though overseas sales slid 21.4 percent year-on-year to $95.4 billion in June, it was less than May's 26.4 percent.

"Though it (exports) showed a recovery sign, there are still many uncertain elements in the second half of the year that may affect exports," said Song.

The narrowed decline in exports last month was helped by the fact that overseas buyers placed more orders for Chinese goods in the past few months.

Related readings:  Trade frictions mount between US and China  Export fall may ease in second half, says minister  June exports down 21.4%, decline slows  China defends export policy against US, EU complaints

A recent survey found that China's new order index vaulted over 50 percent for the first time in June, after inching up for seven consecutive months since December. The survey was conducted by an independent brokerage CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets and China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

"If the world economy had stabilized, China' exports may not be so great," said the senior professor.

Minister of Commerce Chen Deming had said that China's exports decline should ease in the second half of this year, if the global economy improves.

The WTO report said world trade is expected to fall 10 percent in 2009.

Song also urged China to optimize its export structure to guarantee the long-term healthy development of the trading sector.