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Retail sales up 23.2% in August

By Wang Xu (China Daily)
Updated: 2008-09-13 10:17

Retail sales grew at close to the highest rate for at least nine years in August, while industrial output weakened.

Retail sales climbed 23.2 percent year-on-year in August to 876.8 billion yuan, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Friday. But the figure is slightly less than the 23.3 percent growth reported for July.

However, as consumer inflation dropped to 4.9 percent year-on-year in August, down from 6.3 percent in July, the real growth of retail sales could be estimated to be 17.9 percent year-on-year, according to Lehman Brothers' economist Sun Mingchun.

Meanwhile, industrial output growth fell sharply to 12.8 percent year-on-year in August, the lowest in six years.

Apart from coal production, all industrial sectors experienced a slowdown in August. Even the growth rate for motor vehicle production declined 3.3 percent from a year ago.

The sharp decline in industrial output growth, and strong retail sales are sending "mixed signals" about the actual state of the economy, said Sun. "As a result, we expect a series of targeted policies to mitigate the downside risks to economic growth, rather than a large one-off stimulus package, to be implemented gradually."

China's economy grew 10.1 percent in the second quarter, declining for the fourth consecutive quarter. An increasing number of economists say the government would take measures to bolster growth if the economy slows too much.

"Despite recent weakness in industrial production growth, we expect industrial activity to pick up with the re-opening of factories in Beijing and surrounding areas," JPMorgan's Chairwoman of China equities Jing Ulrich wrote in a research note.

The government required factories and other polluting industries in and around the capital city to suspend operation over the past months, in an effort to improve the air quality during the Olympic Games.