We can't afford to pollute first and improve later
Updated: 2007-08-06 15:47
The author Lin Boqiang is director of the China Center for Energy Economics Research at Xiamen University
The key to solving China's environmental issues is to improve society's awareness. The common excuse that China is still at the early stage of economic development and needs to focus on alleviating poverty rather than protecting the environment does not wash. The argument goes that as the economy develops and per capita income increases, there will be greater demand on the environment and measures will be taken to improve it.
This "pollute first, improve later" concept is based on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC), a theory on environmental degradation and the per capita income of a country developed by US economists Gene Grossman and Alan Krueger. According to the EKC, pollution follows an inverted U-shaped pattern relative to the country's income level.
When the country's economic development level is low, pollution is light. The environment deteriorates as the country's economy develops. However, when the economy develops to a certain level, the environment will gradually improve. Behind this curve lies the traditional economic model of developed countries - "pollute first, harness later". According to the inverted U-shaped pattern, demand for the environment increases as people get wealthier and more capable of reducing environmental deterioration.
The curve describes the relationship between economic growth and the environment in developed countries. Their success seems to infer that there is no need to pay special attention to environmental issues; that the "green" stage of the curve will be reached through rapid economic growth.
If economic growth is sufficient for the appearance of the EKC, it would suggest that environmental issues can be solved through development, and that protection policies are an unnecessary luxury in developing countries with low incomes. The question is whether the success of Western countries can be replicated around the world. And the answer is no, because over time the pollution situation, resources and the international economic environment have all changed.
Environmental degradation during the early stage of industrialization in Western countries is different from what's happening in developing countries today. For example, in countries with large populations like China and India, large-scale and high-speed economic development and energy consumption can easily reach or even exceed the critical point of resources and the environment. If resources are exhausted during the economic take-off period, it will take a long time and huge costs to recover. The effects of some forms of environmental deterioration - such as soil erosion and the inability to recover from natural disasters - are already irreversible.
The inverted U-shaped curve was realized in Western countries through an "external environment mitigation model". The industrial growth model was unchanged and environmental issues are dealt with through efforts outside industrial production.
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