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Expert: China to drive Asian growth

By Jamie Thompson (China Daily)
Updated: 2006-08-23 08:52

China will help maintain Asia's ongoing economic growth despite an expected global economic slowdown, according to a leading economist.

Deutsche Bank Group Chief Economist Norbert Walter said the global economic upswing was slowing, particularly in the United States, which he blamed on higher interest rates and oil prices, and stagnating house prices.

However, he added that economies in Asia in general, particularly in India and the Chinese mainland, should be able to maintain their growth because of increasing intra-Asian trade.

Walter made the remarks during a seminar in Shanghai yesterday, which was organized by the city's European Chamber of Commerce in co-operation with the Austria Consulate General, the China-Italy Chamber of Commerce, the German Chamber of Commerce, the Irish Business Forum and the Norwegian Business Association.

Walter said: "The question of whether there will be a soft landing (of the economy) in China in 2007 can be answered simply  there will be no soft landing. There will be no hard landing either  there will be no landing.

"If you look at the world economy over the last 12 years, Asia has towered over everyone else," he said, adding that he expected this trend to continue next year.

Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia were likely to be affected by the expected downturn, which Walter said would be the "end of the longest-ever recovery of the world economy.

"In some areas in Asia there's a dependency on the United States and we should not overlook that," he told delegates.

Walter pointed out that this dependency was largely manifested in the IT industry, "where a number of regions are the workbenches of the United States."

While some areas will suffer from a downturn, the Chinese mainland and India "can find other sources of demand to compensate for the reduction of import demand in the United States.

"Intra-Asian trade will increase and stabilize the Asian economy.