China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs released a working paper on Thursday offering a systematic assessment of Japan's evolving posture on nuclear weapons and its implications for global non-proliferation.

The document presents an evidence-based analysis of how certain Japanese political figures are questioning and seeking to dilute the country's long-standing Three Non-Nuclear Principles — not possessing, not manufacturing, and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons. Their public assertions that Japan should possess nuclear weapons, along with ongoing discussions on nuclear sharing and the strengthening of extended deterrence arrangements, reflect a systematic attempt to condition the Japanese public to accept that change in the nation's posture.

Equally concerning is Japan's accumulation of sensitive nuclear materials given it already has the capability to extract weapons-grade plutonium. With stockpiles of plutonium far exceeding legitimate civilian needs, Japan already possesses the technical ability and conditions for a "nuclear breakthrough" in the near term.

The working paper further emphasizes that Japan's recent actions run counter to its obligations under international law. As a non-nuclear-weapon state party to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, Japan is legally bound not to develop or acquire nuclear arms. Moreover, the post-World War II legal framework — including the Cairo Declaration and the Potsdam Proclamation — explicitly stipulates Japan's complete disarmament. Any movement toward nuclear armament would therefore violate these commitments and challenge the authority of the international non-proliferation regime.

Beyond nuclear-specific rhetoric, Japan has steadily increased its defense spending and revised key security policies in recent years. Projected defense budgets have reached record levels, while policy adjustments have expanded the permissible scope of military activities and equipment exports. These developments raise legitimate concerns about Japan's nuclear-related discourse.

International observers have repeatedly warned that any departure from Japan's longstanding commitment to the peaceful use of nuclear energy would carry far-reaching consequences for regional and global security.

The working paper urges Japan to reaffirm its adherence to the Three Non-Nuclear Principles, and the IAEA to strengthen its safeguards and verification activities, and calls for the imbalance in Japan's stockpile of nuclear materials to be addressed through transparent, time-bound measures.

The document also highlights broader international concerns regarding Japan's handling of nuclear-contaminated water from Fukushima, calling for strict, long-term international oversight.

History has repeatedly demonstrated that militarism and arms races lead only to instability and conflict. Japan, given its unique historical experience, bears a special responsibility to uphold its commitments and act with prudence. Safeguarding the non-proliferation regime and preserving regional peace require sustained vigilance, genuine cooperation, and unwavering adherence to international norms — only then can the international community secure lasting stability for future generations.