Urgent needs

As Southeast Asia seeks new sources of energy, several countries turn to non-Middle Eastern alternatives for their fuel supply, with many turning to Russian crude oil.

To alleviate energy shortages and ensure long-term security, the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam are increasingly looking toward Russia.

Notably, the Philippines, a longtime US ally, has imported Russian crude for the first time in five years.

Vietnam has also officially met with Russian energy representatives to sign agreements for nuclear power plant construction in exchange for long-term energy guarantees.

Approximately, 85 percent of Vietnam's crude oil originates from Kuwait. With the Strait of Hormuz facing disruptions, Vietnam immediately sought aid from East Asian countries, while contacting the UAE, Qatar, and Angola for alternatives.

Le Hong Hiep, a senior fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, noted that this crisis exposes significant vulnerabilities in Vietnam's energy security and complicates its delicate balancing act between major world powers.

International relations scholar Tang Shixuan analyzed that Southeast Asia's vulnerability stems largely from low Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

The current strategic reserves for Vietnam stand at less than 20 days, Indonesia at about 25 days, and the Philippines at 60 days.

Tang explained that Southeast Asia lacks the massive infrastructure and fiscal resources required to maintain larger reserves.

Building storage networks and logistics systems requires years of planning and billions in investment, which remains out of reach for many ASEAN members.

In comparison, East Asian economies maintain better storage capacity despite their heavy dependence on Middle Eastern supply.

While the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement exists, Julia Goh noted it has never faced a large-scale "pressure test".

The agreement's Coordinated Emergency Response Mechanism, or CERM, allows members to voluntarily supply 10 percent of a neighbor's oil needs during a crisis.

"The voluntary nature is a fundamental flaw," Goh said.

"In a true supply crisis, nations will prioritize domestic needs over regional solidarity. CERM is more of a trust-building framework than a functional emergency tool."

Tang agreed that in times of geopolitical tension, energy is frequently used as a strategic tool to squeeze rivals' financial capacities.

He likened the current Strait of Hormuz crisis to the 1970s oil crisis, suggesting it could be a turning point for global energy structures.

Tang said that if ASEAN nations simply shift their dependence from the Middle East to a single source like Russia or the US, they aren't reducing risk — they are merely "transferring dependence".

Elbinsar Purba, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, wrote in an analysis at the Asialink website that "the current strategies focus largely on stopgap measures to avoid supply shortages and minimize price surges. While certain short-term interventions are needed, Southeast Asian nations risk falling into deeper vulnerability if they do not undertake bold transformations of their energy architectures".

He said ASEAN should expedite the deployment of renewable energy. Beyond aspirational goals, it is time for ASEAN to explore enforceable, feasible and viable renewable energy commitments. Lastly, efforts must be stepped up to promote cross-border electricity trade among ASEAN countries.

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