The United States remains "the most systemic and critical variable" in shaping overseas security risks to China in 2026, according to a newly released report. The report warns that intensifying great-power rivalry, fragmented global governance and frequent regional conflicts are creating an increasingly complex external environment for China's overseas interests.

According to the China's Overseas Security Risk Blue Book (2026), jointly released by the National Security Institute of Renmin University and the China Overseas Security Research Institute on Saturday, Washington continues to adopt a high-intensity competitive approach toward China, with its tactics becoming more institutionalized and refined.

At the same time, adjustments in US global strategy are undermining the international order, sending shockwaves through regions where China has extensive interests.

According to the Ministry of Commerce, China's total outbound direct investment across all sectors reached $158.21 billion from January to November 2025. During the same period, Chinese investors made non-financial direct investments in 153 countries worldwide, with cumulative investment totaling $132.09 billion.

Earlier this month, the US military attacked Venezuela and forcibly seized the country's President Nicolas Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores.

The book said that this implementation of what US President Donald Trump has labelled the "Donroe Doctrine", an updated version of the 19th Century Monroe Doctrine which set out US intent to control the Western Hemisphere and plunder its resources, hindered regional cooperation with China.

The blue book, which is in its 10th year of publication, said the attack on Venezuela explicitly showed that the US intends to continue engaging in hegemonic and power politics in Latin America, and that this creates a volatile atmosphere for Chinese investment and cooperation projects in the region.

Liu Qing, vice-president and senior research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies, said that, as progress is made in the country's Belt and Road Initiative, the interests and needs of Chinese companies overseas are expanding, but that security capacity has not kept pace.

This mismatch is becoming a major vulnerability that must be addressed, he said.

The blue book highlights a broader trend of global risks, including deepening US security cooperation with Japan and South Korea, the rightward shift in Japan's political scene and the revival of militarism, frequent conflicts in the Middle East and the prolonged Ukraine crisis.

According to the report, the deficit in and fragmentation of global governance also increase the cost and difficulty of protecting China's overseas interests.
The blue book suggested that China should mitigate geopolitical risks by closely tracking evolving situations and changing conditions.

In dealing with non-traditional security risks, China should step up efforts to strengthen reserves of cutting-edge technologies, while participating constructively in global governance and providing high quality global public goods, the report added.