China's role

After China registered 5.2 percent year-on-year GDP growth in the first three quarters of 2025, market watchers became more confident about its growth prospects in 2026, although they said challenges remained.

In October, President Xi Jinping met his US counterpart Donald Trump in Busan, South Korea, while they also had three phone calls throughout the year. The engagement of the top leadership led to de-escalation of trade tensions and created room for further improvement in bilateral economic relations in 2026, analysts said.

China could also reduce the impact of Sino-US trade conflicts through trade diversification, said Xn Iraki.

"China could weather the US tariffs by diversifying trade with East Asia and Africa and shifting to services and new tech, AI and electric cars," he said.

Palit said, "China's growth will probably remain at a stable level, but it might face some challenges."

China needs to adapt to the US tariffs moving into 2026, when their exact impact on its economy — as well as regional production networks and supply chains — will become clear, he said. The country should also pursue internal economic transformation to improve the efficiency of the economy, he added.

The annual Central Economic Work Conference was recently held to map priorities for economic policymaking in 2026, including measures to boost consumption, formulating and executing plans to raise incomes for urban and rural residents, and expanding the supply of high-quality goods and services.

The meeting also vowed to promote innovation and further reform and opening-up.

"We might not immediately see a very high rate of growth for the Chinese economy in line with the standards that the Chinese economy has been having," said Palit. "But … China will still continue to be one of the largest contributors to global economic growth."

Wang Xiaodong and Edith Mutethya in Nairobi contributed to this story.

Contact the writers at xinzhiming@chinadaily.com.cn