Immediate impacts

The US Department of Agriculture projects a 117 million metric ton soybean harvest this year. But without China, which historically has accounted for 60 percent of US soybean exports, farmers in key agricultural states like Nebraska, Iowa and North Dakota are struggling with storage overflows and financial losses.

In Nebraska, cash prices are hovering below production costs, according to the Nebraska Farmers Union.

Reggie Strickland, a North Carolina soybean farmer, explained the immediate impacts on the harvest.

"We're putting it into storage now, and that relieves the pressure from the farmers' perspective. We're hoping that we can continue to build the relationship and get the markets opened into China, and then we'll be willing to sell when the price is at a point that we can afford to do so," Strickland told China Daily.

His experience reflects broader concerns. Farmers are planning storage strategies 45 days before they harvest, according to Carlos Salinas, executive director of East Asia for the USSEC. Salinas said the US has substantial storage capacity. Iowa, for example, can store three times its grain production.

However, the rise in unsold crops due to lost Chinese demand is overwhelming facilities, and storage limits are being tested.

In North Dakota, there were no orders for new crop soybeans, according to the American Soybean Association, which cited BNSF Railway and regional exporters in its Aug 19 letter to Trump. In mid-September, North Dakota soybeans that would normally be harvested and exported to Asia were piling up in large steel bins, The New York Times reported.

Farmers in the state face $240 to $360 losses per hectare, said association chairman Josh Gackle, with his own farm potentially losing over $400,000.

The trade disruption originates from US tariffs, including a 145 percent threatened level directed at China earlier this year, which prompted Beijing's 20 percent retaliatory tariff on US soybeans.