China needs to establish a shared vision with the Global South so it can safely navigate the narrative traps set by the US

The Ukraine crisis that erupted in February 2022, and the strategic autonomy demonstrated by many countries in the Global South, sparked a wave of reflection among strategists of the United States regarding the status of the Global South and the future of the world order. As a result, there was a marked increase in seminars hosted by US think tanks, as well as a surge in analytical articles published in prominent international relations journals. At the same time, the US government has heightened its focus on the Global South.

Opinions among US strategists regarding the renewed focus on the Global South vary widely. Critics call for a cautious approach, pointing out that the term is inherently vague and more politically symbolic than practically meaningful, thus barely reflecting the complex realities of global power dynamics. They also emphasize that grouping diverse countries under a single label neglects the vast differences among them, potentially leading to a misplaced emphasis on common interests while ignoring significant essential distinctions.

In contrast, proponents advocate for a more strategic use of the concept, arguing that one of the most consequential impacts of the Ukraine crisis may be splitting the world into three — the Global West, the Global East and the Global South. In this context, the Global West and Global East are not only vying for dominance but also fiercely competing for the favor of the Global South.

US strategists analyze the Global South through multiple interconnected frameworks. When it comes to traditional security, the emphasis is on the Global South's growing strategic autonomy. When discussing non-traditional security, the Global South has long seen its interests overlooked and undermined by major powers, but its influence is now gradually increasing. At the regional level, the Global South is often framed as a battleground where China and India vie for regional dominance. On the global stage, the Global South stands at the heart of the strategic rivalry between what the US strategic experts refer to as the China-Russia bloc and the Western powers led by the United States. Geopolitically and economically, swing states, such as Brazil and Indonesia in the Global South, are seen as pivotal players that can influence the international balance of power. Finally, in terms of ideology and political systems, the Global South is recognized for its diversity and complex political landscape.

The perspectives within the US strategists on the resurgence of the Global South highlight notable trends.

First, many US strategists are in favor of employing the term Global South as a framework for shaping US strategies. While some criticize the term for its ambiguity, others argue that this ambiguity provides flexibility, allowing the US to redefine the Global South to fit its strategic objectives. For example, some influential analyses either exclude China from the Global South or include it, depending largely on US strategic and political interests. Many US strategists envision employing a combination of strategies — such as engaging, dividing, confronting and weakening the Global South — tailored to different scenarios as part of a broader effort to sustain the US hegemony.

Second, US strategic experts exhibit a range of diverse perspectives in their understanding of the Global South. They acknowledge the complexity and diversity, and also recognize the diplomatic independence and proactive strategies demonstrated by many developing countries on the global stage.

Nevertheless, their views are marked by certain limitations, frequently influenced by a Western-centric perspective. One major shortcoming is an excessive focus on geopolitical rivalry, which leads to policy recommendations centered on dividing and exploiting the Global South, while portraying China as both a competitor to the Global West and an outsider to the Global South. This approach risks deepening global fragmentation. Moreover, there is a tendency to overestimate the capacity of the Global South to act collectively.

Third, US strategists' advocating for deeper engagement and enhancing cooperation with the Global South has been reflected in the foreign policy and actions of the Joe Biden administration. Since late 2022, the Biden administration has renewed the US-Africa Leaders' Summit and invested in new forms to engage partners from the Asia-Pacific, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean. In addition, senior officials have conducted a series of high-level visits to Global South nations. In October, the International Monetary Fund added sub-Saharan Africa as the 25th chair to its executive board. Through these initiatives, the Biden administration aimed not only to strengthen its engagement with the Global South but also to demonstrate its commitment to improving global governance.

Last, debates on the Global South continue to evolve within the US strategists, indicating that more challenging ideas may emerge in the future. In November, Donald Trump was re-elected US president, a shift that could lead to adjustments in the US' foreign policy approach. Given Trump's limited support for the development needs of the Global South in his first term, this trend is expected to continue in his second term. If the Trump administration persists with a strategy of global retrenchment, it will inevitably affect US engagement on global issues and its policies toward the Global South.

The recent BRICS summit, APEC meeting and the G20 summit once again highlighted the growing influence of Global South countries in international affairs. In 2026, under Trump's leadership, the US will assume the G20 presidency, providing Washington a platform to showcase its achievements in cooperating with the Global South and to rebuild its relations with these countries. Some strategists have referred to this as "the US' last chance with the Global South" and urged the president-elect to engineer a Global South strategy with the G20 at its center.

For now, Trump's second-term priorities are likely to focus on domestic issues such as the economy and immigration, leaving topics such as fostering a more equitable North-South relationship lower on the agenda. Many of the ideas proposed by US strategists regarding the Global South are likely to face significant challenges during Trump's second term.

The world is undergoing accelerated changes and the collective rise of the Global South is a distinctive feature of the great transformation. Amid the Biden administration's new strategic offensive toward the Global South and the uncertainties surrounding Trump's second term, China must deepen its understanding of the diverse dynamics within Global South countries. It should reassess the evolving geopolitical roles of the Global South and establish a shared strategic vision that transcends commercial interests. Furthermore, China must further clarify its international positioning and articulate its stance on Global South issues to avoid falling into narrative traps set by the US, while continuously injecting momentum into the development and cooperation within the Global South.

The author is a postdoctoral fellow at the School of International Studies at Peking University. The author contributed this article to China Watch, a think tank powered by China Daily.The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

Contact the editor at editor@chinawatch.cn.