Trip could sow divisions in Southeast Asia and lead to instability, analysts say

US President Joe Biden is slated to embark on a visit to Vietnam on Sunday, where he will reportedly upgrade Washington-Hanoi relations to a comprehensive strategic partnership.

Though it is normal for countries to develop bilateral relations, the latest developments in the region spark worries that the trip may unsettle stability and deepen existing divisions in the Asia-Pacific, experts said.

During his stay in Hanoi, Biden will meet with Nguyen Phu Trong, Vietnam's Communist Party chief, as well as other officials "to discuss ways to further deepen cooperation between the United States and Vietnam", said White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre in a statement.

Biden's upcoming visit follows US Secretary of State Antony Blinken's trip to Vietnam in April.

Speculation abounds that this visit could culminate in an upgraded US-Vietnam partnership, possibly marked by the signing of a new strategic agreement.

Biden missed the Association of Southeast Asian Nations' leaders' meeting in Jakarta this week to focus on his Vietnam visit, which creates doubts about the role Washington wants Hanoi to play in its geopolitical strategy.

"The Biden administration wants to woo Vietnam to contain Beijing," said Jia Duqiang, an associate researcher in Southeast Asian studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences.

It's clear that in recent years, during heightened tensions between Washington and Beijing, the US has devoted considerable effort to court ASEAN countries, with Vietnam as a primary target, he said.

Jia characterized it as a familiar ploy from Washington's playbook, referring to its recent groundless claim of China obstructing Philippine vessels at Ren'ai Reef last month.

Given that Washington has been trying to exploit China's territorial disputes with the Philippines to its advantage, it could use the same playbook to complicate the dispute between Vietnam and China, he said.

The Chinese Foreign Ministry had earlier called upon the US to refrain from exploiting the South China Sea issue to sow discord and confusion, urging respect for the endeavors of regional nations in maintaining peace and stability.

Uncomfortable position

Tang Qifang, an associate researcher at the China Institute of International Studies, echoed Jia's view by saying the US aims to leverage the South China Sea issue to draw Vietnam, a pivotal player in the region, into its sphere of influence.

Nonetheless, Tang said the US is placing Vietnam in an uncomfortable position, potentially sowing divisions in Southeast Asia.

"The Biden administration is eager to engage with selected ASEAN countries while adopting an indifferent attitude toward others. This places Vietnam in an awkward and challenging spot, with the US' intentions glaringly apparent — it aims to divide ASEAN and incite conflicts within the bloc," Tang added.

Tang said Vietnam would exercise caution in pursuing closer ties with the US.

While the prospect of a new consensus remains uncertain, experts say the US is likely to encounter obstacles in achieving its objectives.

Jia emphasized the amicable relations between China and Vietnam as neighbors, highlighting the robust economic and trade cooperation that has been established with Vietnam and other Southeast Asian nations. This beneficial relationship, he asserted, remains steadfast and impervious to influence from the US.

According to Chinese customs data, China remains Vietnam's largest trading partner, with bilateral trade reaching $234.9 billion last year, constituting approximately a quarter of the China-ASEAN total.

China's imports and exports with ASEAN totaled 6.52 trillion yuan ($970 billion) in 2022, marking a substantial 15 percent surge, attributed in part to the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

Jia said the impact of the US' ambitious initiatives in Southeast Asia is limited. He noted that ASEAN nations maintain a clear-eyed perspective, scrutinizing key issues about regional stability, including those concerning the South China Sea.

Addressing the opening of the 43rd ASEAN Summit on Tuesday, Indonesian President Joko Widodo stressed that the regional bloc won't serve as a proxy for any global power.

"ASEAN has agreed to not become a proxy for whatever power. It wants to work together with any parties for world peace and prosperity," said Widodo, who is this year's rotating chairperson of the bloc.

So, Washington should stop exerting pressure on any country to become a pawn in its geopolitical game against China, said Jia.