Be more confident but it's not time for champagne yet — that's what I might probably say to Chinese carmakers going global.

I have my reasons. Over the past three years, the rise of China's vehicle exports has been meteoric. The surge started suddenly in 2021. Exports touched a phenomenal 2 million vehicles, taking even industry insiders by surprise.

That's because for almost the whole of the preceding decade, the figure stayed at around 1 million units, although China became the world's largest vehicle market 12 years before (in 2009).

Exports hit a new high of 3.11 million units in 2022, overtaking Germany as the world's No 2 vehicle exporter. Chinese cars garnered both attention and orders in developed markets like Europe, Australia and Japan as well as emerging ones like Thailand.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers said auto exports would grow by at least 20 percent year-on-year this year to 3.73 million units. Some analysts are even more optimistic, saying the figure could touch 4 million.

But everyone agrees it's not going to be a "live happily ever after" story. Auto markets are known for ferocious, intense competition. New models, if successful, can sound the death knell for others.

If you look back, it's not hard to realize the surge in 2021, which is widely seen as Chinese carmakers' preliminary overseas triumph, was primarily the result of the competitive edge of "made in China".

An important factor was, foreign carmakers' production was slashed by the COVID-19 scenarios, whereas most auto plants in China weren't disrupted severely because the pandemic was brought under control relatively sooner, said the CAAM.