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Brexit uncertainty is the only sure thing

By JULIAN SHEA | China Daily | Updated: 2018-12-10 10:54
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Anti-Brexit demonstrators wave flags and placards during a protest opposite the Houses of Parliament, London, on Dec 4, 2018. [Photo/Agencies]

Fans say this has the benefit of keeping the UK in the single market for many businesses, enabling British companies to conduct almost frictionless trade with EU member states-but it would come with a hefty price tag.

Labour MP Mike Gapes, who supports Britain staying in the EU, wrote "the £50 billion ($64 billion) divorce bill for the transition period would still be payable and it would then be followed by an annual bill of at least £10 billion. In return for that, we would have surrendered all power and influence. We would have what the Norwegians themselves call 'integration without representation'. We would be a rule-taker, not a rule-maker."

On the other side of the divide, Conservative MP Jacob Rees-Mogg, a prominent critic of May and leader of the right-wing European Research Group, backs the option known as "Canada Plus".

Inspired by the free trade deal Canada has with the EU, it would reduce access to EU markets in favor of increased control over issues such as immigration and trade rules, but it is something in which the government have shown little interest.

When it was first put forward by Rees-Mogg, then-Brexit secretary Raab said such a deal would involve agreeing to customs controls between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, something May has always said would never be acceptable. Considering how much she relies on the DUP's support, that would be hugely contentious.

Having left the Cabinet in protest over her Brexit policy, Raab has joined the ranks of May's critics, and the day after the contempt of Parliament ruling he told Sky News that if Parliament rejected May's Brexit deal, the country should be willing to resort to the extreme measure of "go back to the EU, stop being blackmailed and bullied and make our best offer and be willing to walk away".

Deal? No deal? Leave? Stay? A second referendum? May being deposed from within her own party? A second general election in just more than 18 months-and with that, potentially a change of governing party, and for the first time since 2010, a non-Conservative prime minister? Rule nothing in, and rule nothing out.

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